27 February 2025

New research charts the transition from offset to digital print

In The Future of Digital vs. Offset Printing to 2029 Smithers examines how competing digital and offset printing technologies contend for market share. The new report quantifies the market by print process, end-use application, and region.

Data from the recently published Smithers study The Future of Digital vs. Offset Printing to 2029 show total offset litho (sheetfed, coldset, and heatset) revenues in 2024 reached $311.9 billion globally. This is a significant decline from 2019, when sales of litho printed media were $354.4 billion.

The principal reason for this has been a decline in sales of publishing media - mainly magazines and newspapers, eroding value in heatset and coldset segments, respectively. This was an existing trend from the 2010s, but accelerated across the Covid-19 pandemic as consumers stayed at home and increasingly turned to online or 24-hour news media.

The volumes lost will not be recovered. Smithers forecasts a further decline in sales, albeit at a much slower rate, through to the end of the decade. Combined litho value will drop to $307.9 billion in 2029, at constant pricing. This is attributable to further falls in publishing demand. While heatset and coldset volumes will continue to fall, the outlook is more positive for sheetfed litho, mainly due to organic growth in packaging and label consumption.

In contrast, while print volumes are still low - 4.2% of global output in 2024 - digital printing continues to grow in popularity. Despite the disruptions of Covid-19 global market value increased by $25.6 billion across 2019-2024, reaching $165.5 billion in 2024 or 18.4% of total world print sales. Within the digital sector, inkjet is increasingly the preferred print technology with both productivity and machine speed increasing.

This maps multiple broader trends in print buying, including for shorter run lengths, faster order turnaround, more variable data work, and wider use of web-to-print portals to place orders.

Litho, other analogue and digital print market development, 2019-29, in value terms (% share by value, constant 2023 prices & exchange rates)

There are already some applications where digital has become established as a mainstream production technology - including wide-format graphics, books, and pressure-sensitive labels. Simultaneously it is taking a larger market share of the graphics applications where sheetfed litho is still used. Notable among these are books, advertising, and transactional printing, although the latter is also suffering from falling demand.

Many litho OEMs are developing their own inkjet machines, as well as looking at upgrades that can give some of the same functionality and flexibility as digital. Many of the sheetfed presses showcased at drupa 2024 incorporated new automation features and upgraded software. This is a priority for many litho operators as the segment responds to a shortage of experienced staff. Increased connectivity - typically using an array of analogue and digital presses which, together with prepress and finishing hardware, are connected to a central hub - enable highly cost-effective production with a minimum number of touch points.

Such smart factory concepts can improve profitability, but do favour larger print businesses, especially those with the capital to invest in one of the latest very large format (VLF) sheetfed models. As this trend develops it will cause further consolidation of print service providers, with larger groups forming as smaller businesses are rendered less competitive and squeezed from the market.

Increased automation has additional benefits as productivity is improved and the press can be more profitable at shorter run lengths, directly addressing the challenge of digital. Several OEMs now boast headline speeds of over 20,000 sheets per hour for their flagship models. Manufacturers of these and other analogue presses are increasingly supplementing press sales with new service offerings, including remote monitoring to diagnose faults and predict maintenance requirements.

The Future of Digital vs. Offset Printing to 2029 is available to purchase now from Smithers.