6 February 2018

Muted growth in Q4 but no seasonal boost

MUTED GROWTH IN Q4 BUT NO SEASONAL BOOST - CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AMIDST CONTINUED COST PRESSURES AND LINGERING UNCERTAINTY

A noticeable absence of a seasonal upturn and the worst fourth quarter output report for five years, yet the reality turned out to be slightly better than the subdued expectations - the forecast for Q1 remains positive but subdued. The latest Printing Outlook survey shows 40% of printers increased output levels in the final quarter of 2018. A further 40% held output steady whilst 21% experienced a decline in output. The resulting balance (the difference between the ups and the downs) was +19; up on the forecast of +14 for Q4 but down on the +30 recorded in Q3. The Q4 period often sees a seasonal upturn, so it is disappointing to see a Q4 period reporting lower growth than the preceding Q3 period; as well as undercutting the Q4 periods from recent years.

In Printing Outlook this quarter:

• BPIF Brexit Barometers - to gauge and monitor confidence during Brexit negotiations and forecast conditions after Brexit.
• UK Printing and Packaging trends and forecasts - confidence, costs, pay reviews, capacity, productivity, margins, paper consumption, ink sales volumes, insolvency statistics and more.
• Data, forecasts and commentary on the UK economy and the advertising sector.

Thanks to all survey respondents for their participation, a concise survey has continued to encouraged a good response this quarter. Sponsorship from Konica Minolta means all respondents will receive a printed copy of Printing Outlook. Please respond to the next survey in April to ensure that you receive your copy in the future.

The full Printing Outlook report is available as a free download to BPIF members using the 'More on Printing Outlook' web link below.

There is also an unrestricted press release available on the download link below.