4 December 2018

Brexit Bulletin – November 2018

Welcome to the third monthly Brexit Bulletin from the BPIF - the countdown to 29 March 2019 is flying by! Highlights this month include your top Brexit concerns, a new 'no deal' partnership pack and how to deal with worried customers. In terms of our external activity, we'll be meeting with MPs at the start of December - a week ahead of the crucial vote on the Withdrawal Bill - and sharing with them your feedback. We've also got another meeting scheduled with officials from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. Lobbying activity wouldn't be possible without your input - so once again, thank you!

You can add colleagues to our mailing list by logging into the members' area of the BPIF website or contacting your Regional Director.

In this month's Brexit Bulletin:

1. Brexit update

2. Your latest feedback

3. Quick supply chain checklist

4. Government's no-deal partnership pack

5. Reassuring customers

6. In Wales? Brexit Resilience Fund

7. Latest publications

Brexit update

With the Withdrawal Agreement now signed off by the EU member states, the Government's next challenge is to get the legislation through Parliament. Debates are expected the week beginning 3 December, with a vote on 11 December, but the Prime Minister won't have an easy time - as it stands, a majority of MPs are expected to vote against the deal. This includes the SNP, the DUP, 11 out 12 Lib Dems, 250 Labour MPs and 80 or 90 MPs from her own party. She and her Whips now have only a couple of weeks to talk round (or indeed bribe) the naysayers - it seems the last two and a half years have been the easy bit.

What happens if the deal is voted down?

We'll be in unchartered territory and face the very real prospect of leaving the EU with no deal in place. Labour is arguing that Article 50 could be extended to give more time; the PM is adamant that the deal is the best that can be done.

Want to get involved?

The Guardian has a handy tool where you can check how your MP is likely to vote. Some of you have hosted your MPs at your premises over the last year or so, so why not contact them again now to let them know what you think.

To find out more please click here.

Your latest feedback

Published on 22 November, the latest Printing Outlook has provided more insight into how the industry feels about Brexit. Diverse attitudes and outlooks do still exist but in general, confidence has fallen through the floor. Brexit is now your third highest business concern, after paper/board costs and competitors' pricing.

Our Brexit Barometers have had to be re-scaled to account for the nose-diving confidence levels - both regarding the outlook for the UK economy during the negotiation period, and following our actual withdrawal.

In comparison to the last quarter, fewer respondents (7%) are now 'somewhat confidence' regarding the outlook for the UK economy; down from 18% in Q3. One-third (33%) are currently 'neither confident nor unconfident', up slighltly from 31% previously. Almost two-fifths (38%) are 'somewhat unconfident'; down from 42% in Q3. However, no respondents are in the 'very unconfident' category and 22% have now selected the 'very unconfident' category (up from 8% in Q3).
The actual weighted balance is now -75. This places the current Brexit Barometer for the UK economic outlook during the Brexit negotiation period deep in the negative side of the scale, and firmly in the 'very unconfident' zone. This is the lowest reading by some distance (previously -41 in Q4 2017).

Your top three Brexit concerns currently are:

- General cost inflation

- Tariff barriers

- Non-tariff barriers

The concern some companies have over maintaining a reliable and timely supply chain has encouraged a certain amount of stockpiling. 17% of respondents have admitted that they are currently stockpiling some supplies; of the remainder, a further 25% have plans to stockpile certain supplies over the next six months.

To find out more please click here.

Quick supply chain checklist

Your customers may be checking their supply chains (see item 5) and some of you report back that you're also putting in the ground work to ensure continuity of service. As a starting point:

- Have you carried out a supply chain mapping exercise?

- Do you know where your materials and inputs come from?

- Do you know what tariffs might apply to these after Brexit?

- Do you need to change any contracts with suppliers, to take account of Brexit?

To find out more please click here.

Government's no-deal partnership pack

This month the Government has published a pack for businesses to prepare for changes at the border in the event of a no-deal Brexit. It includes what to expect on Day 1 of a no-deal Brexit, including how to get UK Economic Operator Registration and Identification. It's a helpful heads-up, but don't worry - if the Withdrawal Bill doesn't go through we'll send more specific information about what to do.

To find out more please click here.

Reassuring customers

Many of you have been contacted by customers seeking information about your Brexit plans. Top of their list of worries might be that you won't be able to continue to fulfil contracts in a timely way, or that your charges will increase. Some of these contacts have been informal queries, others have been comprehensive surveys with specific questions about steps you've taken to prepare. In such uncertainty, what can you do to set your customers' minds at rest?

To try and help we've put together a checklist of points to consider and questions to ask. Click the button below to read more.

To find out more please click here.

In Wales? Brexit Resilience Fund

The Welsh Government has launched a £1m Brexit Resilience Fund, available to Welsh businesses, to help them adapt to the changes in a post-Brexit Welsh economy. Administered by Business Wales, businesses can apply for funding of between £10,000 and £100,000 up to 50% of project costs.

To find out more please click here.

Latest publications

We've trawled through the latest publications about Brexit of particular relevance to the print industry.

To find out more please click here.